Just like last off-season, we at Fantasy Lens will be taking a deeper look into running backs and wide receivers to try and better understand which players to target next draft season. The chart below measures how many games a player got above 10, 20, or 30 points and also measures their Point per Touch, or PPT. It is a simple calculation, 1/2 PPR points divided by total touches, but is very useful in identifying which players could be in for a big 2018 season.
2017 was a slightly down year for RB’s as less had double digit double digit games than last year and the average PPT was down from .813 in 2016 to .778 in 2017. Unsurprisingly, Alvin Kamara had the highest PPT at 1.4 while high draft picks Jay Ajayi, CJ Anderson, Amer Abdullah, and Isaiah Crowell all had disappointing seasons with a PPT <.59. Ajayi’s and Anderson’s teammates had below average PPT’s or did not appear on the top 40 list so their team’s offenses seem to be more to blame for their struggles. However, Abdullah and Crowell both had teammates, Riddick and Johnson Jr, appear on our top 40 list with PPT’s of above .90, and would best be avoided next year.
Duke Johnson had one of the highest PPT’s at 1.15. Which is impressive considering how bad Cleveland was this year. Johnson looks to be a solid mid round steal that will get you a consistent 10 points every game. He is going to be the change of pace/3rd down back again with the signing of Carlos Hyde and draft pick of Nick Chubb, but Duke can do a good amount of damage with limited touches in PPR formats. Duke is also our inaugural Frank Gore Mr. Consistency award winner for getting at least 10 games of at least 10 points and no games of above twenty.
Another standout on the list is lead RB point getter, Todd Gurley. He doubled his PPT once freed from the oppressive Jeff Fisher regime.
His expanded role in the passing game helped his production out enormously. The loss of Sammy Watkins shrinks the field for the Rams but Gurley excelled in tight spaces. He forced 79 missed tackles, tied for second most in the NFL, on 343 touches for an almost 25% rate.
PPR darling Chris Thompson accrued a PPT over 1 for the second straight year. The only RB to do so. His value will be dependent on how well Alex Smith integrates into Washington’s scheme. Smith was surprisingly one of the best deep throwers in the NFL in 2017, but that is most likely due to the Chief WR’s being the best in league at getting seperation. Crowder, Reed, and Richardson are unlikely to duplicate that, leading to Smith relying on more dump offs to Thompson. If Thompson can stay healthy, his PPR production will continue and he could have an unprecedented 3rd season in a row with a PPT of over 1.
Alvin Kamara was a beast for the Saints once they let Adrian Peterson go. His PPT was by far the highest, with only Chris Thompson being in the same ballpark. A highlight waiting to happen, Kamara broke 66 tackles on just 201 touches. At 33%, it is the highest rate by a player with more than 100 touches, Duke Johnson is a close second. Playing a full season will drop his PPT a bit most likely, but he will be at or near the top of this stat category for years to come.
Out of the rookies besides Kamara, Christian McCaffrey had the highest PPT. His 80 receptions certainly masked the deficiencies in the Carolina run offense, excluding Cam, but as long as they keep feeding him swing passes, Run CMC should see consistently high PPT throughout his career and warrant mid-high round picks. The loss of Andrew Norwell to the Jags can’t be understated and will hurt an already inefficient run game. In PPR formats McCaffrey is still a fringe RB1 but I can see him falling back in non-PPR leagues.
It was surprising to see Fournette at only .7 PPT, way below the average of the top 40 RB’s. His heavy workload and limited exposure in the passing game will always limit his PPT ceiling but he looks to be a stud in the making, and Ivory will no longer be able to steal his touchdowns. Norwell cements the middle of that offensive line and the loss of Hurns and Robinson should give Fournette more oppurtunities in the red zone.
Kareem Hunt finished with a very respectable .83 PPT even with a huge mid season slump. With Mahomes slated to start next year and the addition of Watkins, the Chiefs offense will stretch defenses all year, giving Hunt ample space to run and catch. Not that he needs it, since he lead the league in broken tackles, with 89, and in average yards after defenders get within 1 yard, with 4.63.
Next up, we will look at the top 40 wide receivers using the same format and see if there are any hidden gems to target in the mid round to help you win your league.
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